Cubs Remain in Playoff Hunt but Struggling Rotation Could Be a Deadline Target

The Chicago Cubs remain in the playoff race with a 47.0% chance to make the postseason according to FanGraphs, but the team's recent struggles on the mound have raised questions about their approach at the August 3 trade deadline.

Since May 16, the Cubs have gone 5-5 but have lost 10 in a row at one point, with their pitching staff posting a 7.11 ERA in that span, the worst in the majors. Their starters have a 4.81 ERA on the season, tied for second-worst in baseball, and allow 1.65 home runs per nine innings, second-worst in the league. With the rotation in disarray and several key arms sidelined by injury, the Cubs may need to act quickly.

Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer downplayed trade deadline speculation in a recent interview, telling Jesse Rogers of ESPN, “We’ll be looking at pitching at that point. [But] sitting here talking about the deadline, given how we’ve played, is the wrong thing to talk about.” Hoyer also reiterated that the team’s position player group is a strength and that the deadline is “the furthest thing from my mind.” However, with the team struggling to generate offense and relying heavily on their young core, a trade could be necessary to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Shota Imanaga and Jameson Taillon are the only starters to qualify for the ERA title this season, but both have ERAs over 4.70. Ben Brown, the team’s most valuable starter at 1.2 fWAR, has made only six starts since moving from the bullpen. Meanwhile, Matthew Boyd, who was projected for 3.4 fWAR in 2025, has been sidelined by a meniscus injury. Justin Steele, who was expected to return from UCL revision surgery, is not expected back until the second half. Cade Horton is out until mid-2027 after Tommy John surgery in April. These injuries have forced the team to rely on underperforming arms like Edward Cabrera, who is allowing a 91.6 mph average exit velocity, the fifth percentile in MLB.

On the offensive side, the Cubs are batting .223/.311/.360 with a 93 wRC+ since May 16, but their overall offense is still strong, with a 107 wRC+ on the season. Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, and Seiya Suzuki are all performing above average. However, Dansby Swanson is struggling badly, batting .180/.285/.322 with a 75 wRC+ in 240 plate appearances. Manager Craig Counsell is expected to bench Swanson for a few games, according to Patrick Mooney of The Athletic, to help him regroup.

In minor news, the Cubs have signed right-hander Andrew Wantz to a minor league contract. Wantz was designated for assignment by the Rays after throwing just 1 2/3 innings this season. His last strong MLB performance came in 2023 with the Angels, when he posted a 3.89 ERA in 39 1/3 innings. The move is a depth signing and not expected to lead to a call-up unless there is an injury or short-term need.

As the trade deadline approaches, the Cubs will need to decide whether to make a move to bolster their rotation. With a favorable schedule in June and a playoff chance still alive, the time to act may be now.